new technologies can bring decision support, health monitoring and health coaches into the home. it was also interesting to see that people in emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India trusted themselves to use health monitoring technologies more than those in more technologically advanced economies such as Japan and the United States.
probably the biggest secret—bigger than monopoly/competition, power law, or distribution—is that there are many important secrets left.
this used to be a convention forty or fifty years ago. everyone believed that there was much more left to do. but generally speaking, we no longer believe that. it’s become a secret again.
four primary things have been driving people’s disbelief in secrets.
1. pervasive incrementalism in our society
2. people are becoming more risk-averse
4. some pull towards egalitarianism is driving us away from secrets
but there is hope.
still round the corner there may wait
a new road or a secret gate,
and though we pass them by today,
tomorrow we may come this way
and take the hidden paths that run
towards the Moon or to the Sun.
it all starts with the application, so stop building your big data sandboxes. stop building your big data stacks. stop building your big data Hadoop clusters without a purpose.
if you start with the application — the use case – you have a purpose. you have focus. you narrow the scope of your technology choices, and most importantly, you accelerate time to value. jim kaskade
The first time Peter Thiel spoke at YC he drew a Venn diagram that illustrates the situation perfectly.
He drew two intersecting circles, one labeled ‘seems like a bad idea’ and the other ‘is a good idea.’
The intersection is the sweet spot for startups.
the fact that the best ideas seem like bad ideas makes it even harder to recognize the big winners. it means the probability of a startup making it really big is not merely a constant fraction of the probability that it will succeed, but that the startups with a high probability of the former will seem to have a disproportionately low probability of the latter.