the chess grand master consider no more moves than does the expert;
he just knows which ones to look at
”…from the robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.
the linear model cannot replace the expert in deciding such things as “what to look for,” but it is precisely this knowledge of what to look for in reaching the decision that is the special expertise people have.
the whole trick is to know what variables to look at and then know how to add.
…even improper linear models are superior to clinical intuition when predicting a numerical criterion from numerical predictors.
towards a unified theory of starting up
1. find the people you believe you could build something amazing with. these are your cofounders.
2. find something you love deeply that could be so much better. this is your market.
3. if you spent your lifetime on that thing, what could it become? this is your vision.
4. what is the smallest possible thing you could build that would test whether others agree? this is your minimal viable product.
5. recruit the smallest team needed to build it. these are your seed investors and first hires. be utterly ruthless about choosing people who share your values, vision and ambition level.
6. build it and launch it. this is your first test.
7. celebrate. it’s really important to do this. that was some intense stuff!
8. tell some people that you think will care. these are the most important people in the world now, the first ever users of your product.
9. is there anything about your product that your new users couldn’t live without? if not, return to step 4, it’s OK. if so, onward!
10. improve that specific thing that they can’t live without. see if they start to tell their friends about how great it is.
11. go back to step 3. maybe it’s even bigger than you thought. if so, tell everyone in your team how so.
12. figure out a way to make money that is aligned with what your users can’t live without.
13. use that money to move faster towards your vision. this means making more users happier, faster.
14. go back to step 3. making something better is addictive. doing it with the best people in the world, for something you love, is worth the heartache.
great founders fail, and weak ones grow to be great. impenetrable markets open up, and large markets vanish. defensible technologies get defeated, and no technology edge produces razor sharp results. rocket ship growth runs out of fuel, and tortoises beat hares.
there really is no formula.
which is infuriating to some. and a career long challenge to others.
” BRYCE DOT VC on the agony of being correctfacebook on product design
at facebook, each team is built with the following contributors:
- Product designer. Responsible for visual, interaction, and product design.
- Researcher. Conducts qualitative and quantitative research.
- Engineer(s). Typically one to four engineers per team.
- Product manager. Responsible not just for project managing, but also ensuring products ship on time and product quality.
In a rapid fire Q&A session at Web 2 Summit a few weeks back Ben Horowitz posited that Facebook was the best run company in Silicon Valley and, perhaps, all of technology.
If this presentation by Facebook’s Adam Mosseri is any indication, it’s easy to see what Ben is talking about.
The company has designed teams and processes informed by data (not totally driven by it), with latitude to act independently on product decisions and encouraged to and encouraged to reimagine and disrupt their own products…
Hiten has a great post detailing some of the finer points of the presentation and providing a bit more context which is definitely worth a read.
what’s so great about the Apple story is that Steve ended up making enormous amounts of money without making it a primary goal of the company. (ditto Larry and Sergey at Google.) contrast that with the folks who brought us the 2008 financial crisis, who were focused only on making money for themselves, while taking advantage of others in the process.
making money through true value creation driven by the desire to make great things that last, and make the world a better place - that’s the heart of what is best in capitalism.
” __________________________
thought leadership at web 2.0 summit
single attribute that had fallen out as a lead indicator for success — Thought Leadership
common traits among Thought Leaders:
- differentiated data
- unique insights
- unconventional points of view
- areas of expertise
A few months back I bumped into an investor friend of mine at a café. Given neither of us live very balanced lives the conversation quickly turned to company building and fundraising. Now, this person has been involved with a number of the recent rising stars in tech, so I was curious to see if…
most of us kind of agree on the thrust of history. the key is to understand how we get there.
…the transition strategies are more important than understanding what the outcome state will be.
” sean parker
